3.11: The Need for a Broad Model

Since the shift from an industrial society to an information society is a structural rather than simply a sectoral shift, it is necessary to have a broad model to understand it. That is, it is necessary to have a model of the whole society rather than simply separate models of the various sectors of which it is composed.

The need for a broad model is reflected also in the work we do at GAMMA, the inter-disciplinary, future-studies "think tank" to which I belong. We are approached by a variety of organizations seeking help in managing the transition to an information society. They find that the sectoral models they have used to date no longer apply in those turbulent, transitional times.

Working at GAMMA, you sometimes feel like a sort of intellectual James Bond in thought-filled adventures - Mr. Think-Think, Write-Write rather than Mr. Kiss-Kiss, Bang-Bang, or like a cerebral Sherlock Holmes, dealing not with mere murders in the past but with the larger mysteries of the future. As in most James Bond and Sherlock Holmes cases, the story opens with someone with a problem. Let me describe, by way of example, the case of the missing predictions.